Will flooding follow this winter with record snowfall? Blaine County officials are trying to prepare for possible flooding. I was invited to the courthouse to visit with Commissioners Plumage and DePriest as well as Emergency Manager Haley Velk and Laurie Huestis in administrative support. The meeting was in conjunction with the National Weather Service's (NWS) Weekly Winter Briefing, Much of the NWS briefing centered on flood potential, monitoring to anticipate flooding and the types of actions individuals can take to protect their own lives and property should a flood occur.

Asked directly if she expected flooding this year, Haley Velk said, "We have a lot of tools to help us forecast and plan for a flood, but I don't have a crystal ball to tell if, when and where a flood might occur." She explained that the rate of melting is affected by weather conditions in the spring. There are simply too many variables to be very specific about long term forecasting of a flood.

Weather factors that could result in flooding

Actually, the "winter briefing" that we watched during my visit, addressed some factors that could cause flooding. According to the NWS there are two "main waves of flood risk." In March, April and sometimes into May, the risk for flooding comes from lowland melting snow, ice jams that occur during the melting and rain on existing snow. As I was writing this story there was a forecast for rain in our area (end of March). That could raise the potential for some flooding, depending on the amount of rain. Later in the spring, during April, May and June, the flooding risk comes from mountain snowmelt and runoff and the likelihood of heavy rainfall which is more common in the spring.

How the above conditions play out determines best case and worst case scenarios. Best case is a gradual warmup with slow, gently melting. That set of factors has minimal impacts on rural roads and fields in the country and reduces potential ponding water in town when drains are clogged or overworked.

The worst case scenario that causes concerns about flooding is the opposite set of conditions from those just described: rapidly warming temperatures and overnight lows above freezing mean rapid snowmelt. That results in lowland flooding and washed out or flooded roads in rural areas and flooded basements and blocked roads in town. A heavy rain of one or more inches in a 24 hour period, or rain on snow at any elevation, raises the flood risk significantly.

Resources to anticipate flooding

The old saw, "Forewarned is forearmed" applies to anticipating if a flood will occur. One of the best resources Haley Velk shared was the NWS's "Montana Weather Hazards Weekly Situation Report" (you can type that in your search engine and the most current version appears). Velk said, "This report, that runs roughly two minutes, comes out each Sunday about mid-day. It focuses on Montana and gives a great day by day and area by area forecast of coming weather events for the next week." From a lay person's standpoint, the NWS's weekly report was easier to follow than the weather reports by the "meteorologists" on the regional TV stations.

There are also a number of publicly accessed monitoring services that have information about reservoir levels, inflow and outflow at dams and data collected at sites on creeks and river points in Blaine County. Velk said, "We watch those numbers for changes that could suggest a flooding event is in the making." The Bureau of Reclamation and the National Weather Service, among several agencies, provide data on the status of reservoirs, rivers and creeks. (see addresses on the Disaster and Emergency departmental website).

There's a lot of technology that helps various agencies predict and prepare for flooding. But the agencies also rely on human observation. Volunteers with the National Weather Service's Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) record daily weather observations and send them to NWS. During springtime, when potential flooding could develop, the National Weather Service encourages locals to call the Great Falls service to report ice jams or flooding (call 406-727-7671).

Individual actions you can take to deal with flooding

There are all sorts of checklists devised by various agencies and groups to help individuals prepare for flooding. Without putting too fine a point in the topic, here are a few basic suggestions that are found on virtually every list of actions regarding flooding. Most are based on using sound judgement and common sense...the main point being: don't take unnecessary chances that could be life threatening.

Before a flood. If you live near a stream or river, and don't have flood insurance, buy it. Flood insurance usually takes 30 days to become effective so think ahead if you foresee a problem. Clear snow and ice from drains and culverts near driveways. Remove snow around fire hydrants in town. Move livestock and machinery from areas prone to flooding. In case electricity is lost, have at least one vehicle fueled, store a few days' worth of food that requires preparation and stock drinking water (one gallon per day per family member).

During a flood. Follow evacuation orders if they are issued. Don't drive or walk through areas that are flooded, abandon a stalled vehicle in flood waters if you can do so safely. Go to a designated safe shelter or move to a safe area if shut off by flood waters.

After a flood. Boil drinking water until the safety of your source is verified as safe and throw out fresh foods that came in contact with flood waters. Check and dry electrical equipment before restarting. Avoid driving through areas that were/are flooded and might have road damage not easily seen. Stay away from flooded areas so rescue and emergency operations are not hampered. Tune radios and TV's for emergency instructions and announcements.

The main advice, on every list, is use common sense and don't take unnecessary risks. Flooding at certain times will be unavoidable. Making safe and practical responses are the best ptions, please use them.