What are the big stories to watch in ag in 2023? Here are our predictions
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Farm bill discussions
The farm bill is the major legislation concerning both agriculture policy and nutrition policy in the U.S. Passage of the $867 billion 2018 farm bill was historical, as it is the first time since 1990 the legislation was introduced and enacted in the same year. That bill, which passed with wide bipartisan support, expires on Sept. 30, 2023.
It’s not unusual for previous farm bills to get extensions before their expiration and to last far longer than their planned five-year lifespans. But ag groups, nutrition groups and others are gearing up to get new legislation written this year.
We’ll undoubtedly hear more about the plans for a new farm bill throughout 2023. And it’ll be far different than the 2018 iteration, if for no other reason than changes in leadership at the helm of the discussions as well as a bunch of new folks in Congress who will have to learn how the legislation works.
Continued world turmoil
When Russia invaded Ukraine , it sent shock waves across many portions of agriculture. It impacted prices and market volatility, availability of fertilizer, oil prices and more. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is far from over, and before too long the conversation will be on what farmers in those countries may — or may not — be able to produce in 2023 and what that means for farmers and for prices in the rest of the world.
And the Black Sea region isn’t the only place in the world with ups and downs. How numerous countries react to the conflict also may play a part.
Plus, China also plays a big role in the markets. Though it recently lightened up on its COVID-19 protocols, what China does matters worldwide in things like soybean and pork markets because of its needs to import food sources for its massive population.
Weather woes
In the northern Plains and upper Midwest, weather always is going to be a story. What exactly that story will be remains to be seen. Right now, it seems like winter weather could play a role in how things go . If the region stays on the same pattern of cold and snow and wind that it’s now on, there will be questions about the timing of spring planting.
But, of course, there also is a good chance that the winter moisture will all melt and run off, and the region could be back in drought or at least too dry of conditions by the growing season.
Labor
Finding people to work remains an issue in all sorts of industries, including agriculture. Labor woes are likely to continue to impact farms, ranches and agribusinesses.
The Farm Workforce Modernization Act , which would make changes to the H-2A temporary worker program among other things, has passed the U.S. House and been introduced in the Senate. But what a new Congress may do with the legislation remains to be seen.
Interest rates
What the Federal Reserve does with interest rates going forward could be a big deal for farmers. The Fed has been increasing the rate to combat inflation for months now. Higher interest rates could be a big price tag for farmers. And that higher price tag could impact things like equipment sales, land sales and profitability.
